Trump's Iran Tough-Talk Hitting a Wall 05/19 06:09

   President Donald Trump has considered himself an effective dealmaker above 
all else, but he appears to have hit a wall with Iran as his tough talk, 
threats and even military action have not moved Tehran from its 
long-established positions.

   WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Donald Trump has considered himself an 
effective dealmaker above all else, but he appears to have hit a wall with Iran 
as his tough talk, threats and even military action have not moved Tehran from 
its long-established positions.

   With shifting goals that make it difficult to judge the status of the U.S. 
effort, Trump and his top aides have insisted the United States has already won 
the war and that Iran is ready to reach an agreement in the wake of escalating 
U.S. threats during a tenuous ceasefire.

   But Trump once again backed down, saying Monday that he had put plans for an 
imminent resumption of attacks on hold at the request of Gulf Arab states 
because "serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, 
as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable 
to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, 
and beyond."

   Although he said he had called off strikes planned for Tuesday, Trump kept 
up the bravado, saying he told military leaders "to be prepared to go forward 
with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment's notice, in the event 
that an acceptable Deal is not reached." Trump has repeatedly set deadlines for 
Tehran and then backed off.

   Despite growing internal unrest, a crippled economy and the deaths of many 
of its leaders, there is no evidence Iran is set to meet Trump's demands -- 
many of which it has long rejected. In fact, it has dug in. That has left 
Trump's stated top objectives unrealized: Iran has yet to agree to abandon its 
nuclear program or its ballistic missile development, or cease support for its 
proxies in the region, including those in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.

   The White House on Monday defended the president's approach, saying, 
"Trump's preference is always peace and diplomacy" but he will only accept a 
deal that puts America first. "President Trump holds all the cards and wisely 
keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear 
weapon," spokesperson Olivia Wales said in a statement to The Associated Press.

   Iran has leverage with the Strait of Hormuz

   Crucially, Iran still has a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, the vital 
shipping lane for global oil supplies, even as the U.S. military has enforced 
its own blockade on Iranian ports. The wild shifts in the global energy market 
that followed have raised gasoline prices, hurting U.S. consumers and causing 
potential problems for Trump's Republican Party ahead of congressional midterm 
elections in November.

   Trump's playbook of turning up the pressure -- economically and militarily 
-- to bend foreign governments to his will is not playing out in Iran as it has 
in Venezuela, Cuba and elsewhere. Oil blockades have squeezed those two 
countries and the Trump administration quickly ousted Venezuelan leader Nicols 
Maduro, but they do not hold a bargaining chip as effective as Iran's control 
over the Strait of Hormuz.

   With the Iran war driving up costs for Americans, Trump's approval rating on 
the economy has slumped, according to an AP-NORC poll conducted last month, 
with even Republicans showing less faith in his leadership.

   For all of Trump's rhetoric, Iran has been unwilling to accept limitations 
on any of its policies that amount to more than what it conceded during the 
negotiations for a nuclear deal with world powers during the Obama 
administration. Trump called it the "worst ever" agreement negotiated by the 
U.S. and pulled out of it in his first term in 2018.

   Since a fragile truce in the war went into effect last month, Trump has 
lashed out over the slow pace of negotiations to reach a permanent deal.

   "For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there 
won't be anything left of them," Trump posted on social media Sunday shortly 
after a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

   The Iranian response was quick. "Our armed forces' fingers are on the 
trigger, while diplomacy is also continuing," Mohsen Rezaei, a military adviser 
to Iran's supreme leader, said on state television.

   Neither side sees defeat, expert says

   Ali Vaez, Iran director at the International Crisis Group who has watched 
years of fruitless diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, said the longtime 
adversaries do not see themselves as being defeated by the latest conflict.

   "Since the ceasefire took effect, both Washington and Tehran seem to be 
working on the assumption that time acts in their favor: Each believes that the 
blockade and counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz raises the costs for the 
other side, while giving a reprieve to prepare for a potential resumption of 
hostilities," Vaez said.

   Despite the impact of America's economic pressure campaign, Iranian 
officials have not reached the pain threshold "to the point of accepting what 
it perceives as capitulatory demands," he said.

   David Schenker, a former assistant secretary of state for the Middle East in 
Trump's first administration who is currently at The Washington Institute for 
Near East Policy, described the current situation as "a stalemate."

   He said Trump likely has "misgivings" about returning to full-on military 
conflict, especially because of Gulf Arab anxieties about Iranian retaliation 
and the volatility in the energy markets, with its political implications in 
the U.S.

   Rich Goldberg, an Iran hawk and former National Security Council official in 
both of Trump's administrations who is now with the Foundation for Defense of 
Democracies think tank, insisted that Trump is still operating from a position 
of strength, including with the Strait of Hormuz.

   Goldberg, who has a special interest in American energy dominance, said that 
while reopening the strait would ease the "pain at the pump" felt by many 
Americans, it was not critical.

   "The short-term pain at the pump is distracting people from U.S. overall 
energy dominance," he said. "This is not a permanent crisis."