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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/22 10:52

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Row crops move sideways, with spring wheat the midday leader.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 190 points higher. The 
interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 5 points lower. Energies 
are mixed with crude 0.40 higher. Livestock trade is flat to slightly higher. 
Precious metals are firmer with gold up $4.30. 


   Corn trade flat to 1 cent higher at midday in light two-sided action so far. 
A 92-million-acre figure, up 3.35% year over year, as the USDA Outlook estimate 
for 2019 US Acreage with a new crop carryout of 1.65 billion bushels has added 
some light support this morning. South America progress will remain on track 
for corn in the near term. The energy complex remains near the upper end of the 
range, with ethanol futures reaching $1.36 with seasonal support starting to 
develop more. Corn basis should firm again with more weather disruptions with 
aggressive bids by some end-users with more focus on exporters with trade. The 
export sales for the last six weeks were 6.06 million metric tons, towards the 
upper end of the range of expectations. On the March chart trade has support at 
the recent $3.68 1/2 low, the lower Bollinger Band at $3.70 7/8, with more 
notable chart resistance clustered at $3.76-$3.78 which we have been tested but 
failed to move through the last two days. 


   Soybean trade is narrowly mixed with trade holding support but not able to 
extend further from the reversal earlier in the week. Meal is flat to $1.00 
lower and oil is flat to 10 points lower. The USDA Outlook forum noted a 85 
million acre number for 2019 planted acreage, down 4.7% from 2018 with carryout 
at 845 million. South America weather should maintain the recent pattern in the 
coming days with Brazil harvest moving along and drier weather in Argentina 
with pod fill on going. Crush margins remain strong. Trade talks will continue 
in the U.S. this week with some progress scored this week according to most 
sources and the March 1 deadline looming, although there is more talk of an 
extension with apparent good progress this week along with further Chinese 
purchase commitments over a broad array of ag products expected to be confirmed 
today. Export sales were 6.531 million metric tons of soybeans, 1.468 million 
of meal, and 92,100 of oil. On the March chart resistance is now the moving 
averages clustered at $9.09-9.14 which we testing this morning again, with 
support at the lows from Wednesday at $8.93 with oversold conditions in place.


   Wheat trade is 1 to 11 cents higher with Minneapolis trade leading again, 
with the winter wheats still struggling to maintain momentum. US export 
business will remain in focus with the delayed export sales at 3.457 million 
metric tons, with most business done well above current market levels. The 
dollar has remained flat after Fed guidance. The outlook forum had 47 million 
acres of wheat with a 944 million bushel carryout. Cold weather is expected to 
keep some stress on the plains in the near term with winter wanting to hang 
around. On the March Kansas City chart, support is low at $4.49 1/4 with 
resistance the 10-day at $4.75, with trade easing oversold conditions.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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