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DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/26 11:04
Soybean, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday; Corn Mixed
Soybean futures are 31 to 45 cents higher at midday Thursday; wheat futures
are 9 to 19 cents higher; corn futures are 3 cents lower to 2 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Soybean futures are 31 to 45 cents higher at midday Thursday; wheat futures
are 9 to 19 cents higher; corn futures are 3 cents lower to 2 cents higher. The
U.S. stock market is firmer with the S&P up 70 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is
20 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with
crude up 3.80 and natural gas up .30. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs
leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold down 1.50.
CORN:
Corn futures are 3 cents lower to 2 cents higher with softer spread action
as trade faded back to the lower end of the range again, before firming back
off the lows as soybeans lead trade higher. The daily export wire has been
quiet while basis shows some signs of life again in spots. Weekly export sales
were disappointing at 151,600 metric tons (mt) of old-crop corn and 58,300 mt
of new. Ethanol margins look to remain rangebound near term with the bounce in
unleaded to support blending. The second crop in Brazil will head for the
homestretch while U.S. weather continues to keep moisture in much of the Corn
Belt with warmer weather into the weekend. On the July contract chart, we have
resistance at the 20-day moving average at $7.87 with the lower Bollinger Band
at $7.60 as support, which we tested again overnight with the fresh low at
$7.55 below that.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 31 to 45 cents higher at midday after early weakness as
strong spread action supports ideas of nearby demand. Meal is $7.00 to $8.00
higher, and oil is 175 to 185 points higher. South America is moving toward
post-harvest footing at this point, with planting to remain sluggish with the
expected moisture this week with the warmer temps to help progress into the
weekend. Basis has held strength well at processors and exporters. Weekly
export sales were soft at 276,800 mt of old crop and 443,000 mt of new; meal
was 159,600 mt old and 58,300 mt of new; and 6,200 of oil. On the July soybean
chart, we are still solidly above the 20-day moving average at $16.52 with the
upper Bollinger band at $17.21 the next round up, which we are trying to push
through at midday.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 9 to 19 cents higher at midday with spring wheat leading
as volatile action continues with trade bouncing a bit off the overnight lows
again, keeping the day rallies intact. Russia has allowed limited transit out
of Mariupol, but we remain a ways off from serious progress in opening more
ports with weather stabilizing in Europe. The dollar remains fairly rangebound.
Warmer weather is expected to return soon to push maturity again with spring
wheat progress likely to continue to struggle. KC wheat is back to a 56-cent
discount to Minneapolis in wider action, and at an 88-cent premium to Chicago,
firming a bit. Weekly export sales were disappointing at -2,300 mt of old crop
and 246,300 mt of new. The KC July chart has resistance at the Upper Bollinger
Band at $13.83, with the 20-day moving average at $12.17, which we tested
again, and the low at $11.92 becoming further support.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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